THE SUSTAINABILITY OF MALAYSIAN PALM OIL AND FORECASTING OF FOREST AND PLANTATION LAND AREA USING MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH

Abstract

The palm oil industry in Malaysia plays a vital role in the global market. In 2021, it significantly boosted Malaysia’s agricultural sector. This study explores mathematical modelling to assess palm oil supply chain sustainability, especially in light of biodiversity concerns related to industrial monoculture cultivation. We apply supervised machine learning to determine sustainability weights, which are then used to assess supply chain risks and develop a mathematical model that balances sustainability considerations. This dynamic relationship is modelled using differential equations, particularly the Lotka-Volterra equations, which capture the interaction between palm oil plantation areas and their impact on the surrounding environment (forests). The analysis reveals several possible equilibrium points: (i) Extinction of both the palm oil plantations and forests, (ii) coexistence with a stable forest population and declining palm oil plantations, and (iv) coexistence of both populations. These equilibrium points represent different scenarios where the dynamics of palm oil plantations and the environment can reach a stable state. The palm oil plantations are modelled as predators while the forests are considered prey. In conclusion, this study applies mathematical modelling to advance sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, focusing on the equilibrium dynamics between the environment and palm oil cultivation.