Measuring Central and Eastern Europe’s Socio-Economic Development Using Time Lags

Abstract

This paper applies the ‘time lag’ method to a set of social and economic indicators, examining the development of Central and Eastern Europe since the first world war. Originally used to assess technology diffusion, this method allows comparison of levels of development between states and through a long period of time. It presents how many years have elapsed between achieving a certain level of development between countries. The results show that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have only narrowly converged with a set of 23 highly-developed ‘benchmark’ states. Development in monetary terms (gross domestic product per capita) is the indicator where this region lags most. Employment structure, life expectancy or infant mortality show much smaller lags. Communist states were closest to the West in the 1960s–early 1970s and struggled thereafter. They are still mostly lagging more today than at their peak before transformation despite the progress achieved in absolute terms after the fall of centrally-planned economy.