Natural Disaster Risk Assessment in Countries Along the Maritime Silk Road

Abstract

The 21st-century Maritime Silk Road initiative highlights the importance of oceans as hubs for resources, ecology, and trade, yet a comprehensive understanding of marine natural disaster risks within this region remains limited. This study focused on 30 countries along the Maritime Silk Road and developed a multi-hazard natural disaster risk assessment framework tailored for large-scale regional evaluation. It goes beyond single-factor or single-disaster assessments to enhance disaster resilience and support effective disaster response strategies. The framework integrates 65 indicators across four dimensions: disaster-causing factors, disaster-conceiving environments, disaster-bearing bodies, and disaster reduction capacities. It employs five single-indicator evaluation models alongside a combination assessment method based on maximum deviations to evaluate national-scale natural disaster risks. Results reveal spatial consistency in risk evaluations and capture the exposure and sensitivity of 30 countries to different hazards. South Asia exhibits higher seismic risks, while Saudi Arabia consistently receives the lowest risk. Tropical countries like Vietnam and the Philippines face significant storm risks. Drought hazard risk is higher in the Middle East and East Africa, while it is lower in Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Flood risks are notably higher in Bangladesh, while Iran and Tanzania consistently receive lower risk ratings. Overall, South Asia exhibits higher multi-hazard risks, with medium-to-low risks along the Mediterranean and Southeast Asia. These findings provide technical support for disaster risk reduction by identifying high-risk areas, prioritising resource allocation, and strengthening disaster reduction strategies.