Prediction and Correlation Analysis between Water Discharge and Rainfall in Ciliwung River, Bogor City

Abstract

Water demand should be balanced with water availability. The population of Bogor City was increased every year, so that water demand become increased. Currently, Government of Bogor City only utilizes the Cisadane river as a source for drinking water, even though Bogor City has 2 rivers there are Cisadane river and Ciliwung river. Therefore, Ciliwung river can be solution for this problem. Water discharge and rainfall influence water availability. Distribution log pearson type 3 used to predict the water discharge and rainfall and linier regression analyzed the relationship between water discharge as dependent variable with rainfall as X1 and water level as X2 as independent variable. The result of distribution log pearson type 3 every return period 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years is water discharge and rainfall were increased. Average increase of water discharge every return period is 1.6 m3/s and average increase of rainfall every return period is 89.25 mm. Partially, water discharge influenced by water level and rainfall 97.7%. Water level and rainfall cannot be ignored because ρ = 0.000 < α = 0.05 with regression model Ŷ =-3.01 + 0.002 X1 + 0.202 X2.