Costs and Opportunities for Preserving Coastal Wetlands under Sea Level Rise

Abstract

Rises in sea level can alter the distribution of coastal wetlands through migration landward and loss due to inundation. The expansion of coastal developments can prevent potential wetland migration, exacerbating loss as sea levels rise. Pre-emptive planning to set aside key coastal areas for wetland migration is therefore critical for the long-term preservation of species habitat and ecosystem services, yet we have little understanding of the economic costs and benefits of doing so. Using data and simulations from Queensland, Australia, we show that the opportunity cost of preserving wetlands is likely to be much higher under sea level rise than under current sea levels. However, we find that payments for ecosystem services can alleviate these costs, and in many cases may make expanding the reserve network profitable in the long run. This highlights the need to develop markets and payment mechanisms for ecosystem services to support climate change adaptation policies for coastal wetlands.