Study on Influencing Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Railway Operations in China

Abstract

Effective control of the carbon dioxide generated by railway operation to realize the green development of railway transportation is facing major challenges. Based on the study of railway bureaus in China, the change trend of carbon dioxide emissions from 2006 to 2017 was calculated and analyzed, and the econometric model was applied to find out the main determinants of total carbon dioxide emissions and changes in carbon dioxide emissions from railway operations. The calculation results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of China's railway transportation industry in the operation stage from 2006 to 2017 present a fluctuating downward trend, which period can be further divided into three stages: the steady decline period from 2006 to 2012, the sharp decline period from 2012 to 2015 and the steady decline period from 2015 to 2017. China's railway operation is developing in a low-carbon and green direction. During the research time window, the carbon dioxide emissions of railway operation decreased by 46.35%. Through the fixed effect and random effect models, it is estimated that the industrial structure, average transportation distance and converted turnover positively promote the railway carbon dioxide emissions. Vehicle structure and high-speed railway are the main factors to restrain or reduce railway carbon dioxide emissions. The industrial structure variable has the largest contribution to the carbon dioxide emissions of railway operation, with the regression elasticity coefficient of 1.671. At the same time, the variation of industrial structure is also the factor that causes the largest change in carbon dioxide emissions within a year.