A Nonextensive Statistical Physics Analysis of the 1995 Kobe, Japan Earthquake

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for the period 1990–1998 in a broad area surrounding the epicenter of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The frequency–magnitude distribution analysis is performed in a nonextensive statistical physics context. The nonextensive parameter q M, which is related to the frequency-magnitude distribution, reflects the existence of long-range correlations and is used as an index of the physical state of the studied area. Examination of the possible variations of q M values is performed during the period 1990–1998. A significant increase of q M occurs some months before the strong earthquake on April 9, 1994 indicating the start of a preparation phase prior to the Kobe earthquake. It should be noted that this increase coincides with the occurrence of six seismic events. Each of these events had a magnitude M = 4.1. The evolution of seismicity along with the increase of q M indicate the system’s transition away from equilibrium and its preparation for energy release. It seems that the variations of q M values reflect rather well the physical evolution towards the 1995 Kobe earthquake.