The (false) promise of Germany’s Zeitenwende

Abstract

Germany’s role as a security actor has evolved considerably over the past decades. While in the twentieth century neighbouring countries feared a resurgence of German militarism, in the twenty-first century the country has come under increasing pressure to adopt a more proactive military posture. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine shattered the European security architecture, many hoped for a groundbreaking reorientation at Europe’s economic centre. However, it is unlikely that the historic turnaround announced by Chancellor Scholz will become a reality, as the Russian war will not fundamentally change Germany’s international status, nor the key domestic factors that have historically determined its approach to security and defence policy. As Germany’s historical baggage continues to weigh heavily, it seems that reforms will not go beyond a better equipped Bundeswehr and a more power-political approach to the defence industry, which already poses a costly challenge for current and future decision-makers.