Herd immunity for traffic safety in mixed automated traffic: what if cars could not crash!?

Abstract

Traffic safety is arguably the most important traffic metric from a human perspective. Still, many millions of people are killed on roads every year. In this paper, the concept of Herd Immunity for Traffic Safety (HITS) is presented for the first time. This concept focuses on identifying and describing the increased level of safety that is achieved when Connected Automated Vehicles (CAV) and Human Driven Vehicles (HDV) co-exist in mixed traffic. The underlying mechanism is described with a key component being the ability of CAVs to absorb human error and reduce exposure to risk. With increasing levels of CAV penetration, so-called tipping points occur in which the traffic safety grows in proportion to the penetration rate, which is demonstrated by the non-linearity of the penetration–risk relationship. This is demonstrated in theory and experimental cases while requirements to understand and apply the concept more extensively in the future are presented.