ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF A MINERAL WATER INDUSTRY: A RISK ANALYSIS STUDY

Abstract

In order to understand and estimate the risks of failure associated with investing in a mineral water project, it is essential to carry out some types of analysis, such as: (i) economic viability; (ii) risk; (iii) sensitivity and; (iv) scenarios. This study presents a risk analysis approach developed from Software Risk simulator for a mineral water industry in the state of Piauí in the Brazilian Northeast. The data used were obtained through the Economic Utilization Plan (EUP) for the year 2015. It should be noted that the analysis techniques used for the construction of the risk analysis were: tornado analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of scenario. The realization of this study made it possible to identify the most impacting variables in the cash flow in this mineral water enterprise. Finally, all these analyses are essential to evaluate the risks of failure, investments and economic viability of a mineral water undertaking, being fundamental for the planning and decision making the execution of all the steps carried out in this study.