Ethnic Bias after Ethnic Conflict: Preferential Voting and the Serb Minority in Croatian Elections

Abstract

In spite of growing interest in democratization and electoral competition after ethnic conflict, we know little about the impact of ethnic violence on voter choice in post-conflict societies. This article uses an original dataset of local-level electoral results, communities’ exposure to war violence, and candidates’ ethnicity derived from names in contemporary Croatia to uncover the relationship between local post-conflict ethnic distribution, ethnic violence, and the electorate's ethnic bias. Our analysis points to the presence of ethnic bias that is determined by local interethnic balance and exposure to war violence–particularly for communities populated by the Serb minority.