Economic Valuation of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Agricultural Sector in Northern Governorates of the Nile Delta

Abstract

It is widely believed, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections, that there will be an increase in the global average sea level of 0.18 cm to 0.59 cm through the twenty-first century. The coastal area of the Nile delta is considered to be one of the most vulnerable areas to Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the world. Where, the Nile Delta consists mostly of lowland areas which accommodate a significant proportion of the Egyptian agricultural and economic activities. SLR is expected to have a profound impact on the agricultural areas of the Nile Delta, through either inundation or higher levels and salinity of groundwater. Due to the prevailed vulnerability of the Nile delta and as guidance for decision and policy making, it is necessary to provide estimates of potential economic damage that can result from such SLR. The paper in hand intends to estimate the economic value of the agricultural areas, in the coastal governorates of the Nile Delta, susceptible to inundation due to SLR according to most recent SLR scenarios and to estimate the economic value of potential impacts of rising groundwater table, associated with SLR, on agricultural productivity by the year 2100. The results indicate that about 7.5%, 36.3%, and 44.0% of the total cultivated area of the coastal governorates of the Nile Delta (with a market value of 51.7, 196.6 and 232.6 billion EGP (Egyptian Pound)) will be susceptible to inundation under the different scenarios of SLR. Moreover, it was found that the future accumulative crop yield loss due to increasing groundwater level was estimated, using segmented linear regression, to be as much as 32.3 billion EGP. It is worth mentioning that these estimates do not include indirect impacts of higher levels of groundwater table, which may include loss of jobs and/or earnings, impacts on food supply and food security in the area.