Stochastic modeling of the charging behavior of electromobility

Abstract

As electric vehicle market penetration grows steadily and charging demand along with it, the analysis of daily usage gains in significance. We propose in this paper a simple yet powerful tool based on a Markov chain that can model the stochastic nature of day to day usage of a charging station if adequate datasets on travel patterns are available. The model is generic and therefore can be tailored to different locations with different features. Within this work, we conducted a case study with the aim to verify the algorithm. By an additional sensitivity analysis, impacts of the made assumptions are considered. With a final analysis of two charging tariff designs the model provides valuable stochastic information about electricity consumption and annual revenues at a location of interest.