Accounting for inflation dynamic in a fully optimizing macroeconomic framework: evidence from the US states

Abstract

This article proposes a New Keynesian DSGE model that can capture the hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock that does not depend upon backward-looking elements for the price and wage-setting, such as the indexation of wages or prices. The two additional elements required to achieve a hump-shaped response are roundabout production structure (input–output structure for production) and working capital. Depending on the model’s parameterization, this channel can provide a pronounced response of inflation. In addition, our article provides some reduced-form evidence about the hump-shaped response of inflation using a VAR with Cholesky ordering.