Determinantes da demanda do setor automobilístico brasileiro: uma análise empírica

Abstract

This work used ARDL models to analyze the demand for vehicles from Brazil between Janua-ry/2012 and December/2019. The results indicate that exchange rate devaluations, reductions in IPI and increases in GDP, credit supply (for vehicular acquisition), Brazil’s risk and consumer confidence would stimulate demand. Alternatively, increases in interest rates, new and used vehicle prices and fuel costs would tend to decrease. It is believed that: a) the demand for popular vehicles is more sensitive to prices; b) Ford has differentiated customers; c) vehicle autonomy is relevant in the face of fuel fluctuations; d) vehicle’s manufacturers with their own banks/finance are less affected by interest rate; e) Toyota’s security encourages sales in times of uncertainty. Furthermore, the behavior of customers from “GM, Fiat, Toyota and Peugeot--Citroën” proved to be quite similar, while those from “Volkswagen and Nissan”, “Honda and CAOA” and “Ford and Hyundai” were considerably different.