On the multifaceted impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia

Abstract

BACKGROUND Within the context of increasing migration flows and persisting low fertility rates in more developed areas, focus has been placed on the impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries. OBJECTIVE The paper examines the effect of migration on the fertility of selected European countries, the United States, and Australia for the 2009-2015 period. METHODS We provide methodological insights and evidence derived from comparisons of estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs) of native-born or foreign-born women, or female citizens or noncitizens. RESULTS The results show that although the United States and Australia are seen as model countries of migration, the contribution of migrants to the levels and trends in the TFR and in the total number of births in these countries seems to be less significant than in some European countries. Our results also show that differences in the overall TFRs of the United States and selected European countries are driven more by the differences in the TFRs of native-born women than by the net effect of migration. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that the impact of migration on fertility is a multifaceted issue, going far beyond the commonly used net effect of migration on increases in a country's TFR.