Sustainable Finance and Tax Issues: How Could Advanced ESG Analysis Deter Tax Avoidance?

Abstract

Considered by some authors as blindsiding sustainable finance, tax evasion and avoidance represents a measurement problem. This research aims at measuring corporate tax avoidance as a risk continuum and at correlating this measure of risk with financial market risk, measured by average stock price volatility. This research is based on a first set of indicators of this risk continuum, and then improved by an analysis of the literature to take into account the recent implementation of related regulation, notably the GLOBE project of OECD. Indicators are contextualized to understand the complexity of the phenomenon. The risk continuum is broken down into four categories, corresponding to four levels of tax risk. This first test of risk continuum is realized with the Stoxx Europe 50 companies over five semesters, from 2023 to 2025. The average volatility of these categories of risk is measured. The least risky category has a lower volatility and some sectors are identified as specific. Risk factor analysis confirms the results. The last results are put in the perspective of the risk–return arbitrage and show another potential use of these results.