Comparing temperature data sources for use in species distribution models: From in-situ logging to remote sensing

Abstract

Aim: Although species distribution models (SDMs) traditionally link species occurrences to free-air temperature data at coarse spatio-temporal resolution, the distribution of organisms might instead be driven by temperatures more proximal to their habitats. Several solutions are currently available, such as downscaled or interpolated coarse-grained free-air temperatures, satellite-measured land surface temperatures (LST) or in-situ-measured soil temperatures. A comprehensive comparison of temperature data sources and their performance in SDMs is, however, currently lacking. Location: Northern Scandinavia. Time period: 1970–2017. Major taxa studied: Higher plants. Methods: We evaluated different sources of temperature data (WorldClim, CHELSA, MODIS, E-OBS, topoclimate and soil temperature from miniature data loggers), differing in spatial resolution (from 1″ to 0.1°), measurement focus (free-air, ground-surface or soil temperature) and temporal extent (year-long versus long-term averages), and used them to fit SDMs for 50 plant species with different growth forms in a high-latitudinal mountain region. Results: Differences between these temperature data sources originating from measurement focus and temporal extent overshadow the effects of temporal climatic differences and spatio-temporal resolution, with elevational lapse rates ranging from −0.6°C per 100 m for long-term free-air temperature data to −0.2°C per 100 m for in-situ soil temperatures. Most importantly, we found that the performance of the temperature data in SDMs depended on the growth forms of species. The use of in-situ soil temperatures improved the explanatory power of our SDMs (R2 on average +16%), especially for forbs and graminoids (R2 +24 and +21% on average, respectively) compared with the other data sources. Main conclusions: We suggest that future studies using SDMs should use the temperature dataset that best reflects the ecology of the species, rather than automatically using coarse-grained data from WorldClim or CHELSA.