The rainfall probability analysis of Mapalana and its application to agricultural production of the area

Abstract

A b m a c t ~ Daily rainfall of the Mapalana Meteorological Station for 35 consecutive years were analysed for the Markov chain Robabilities for weekly rainfall and the rainfall availability of the location is assessed in relation to rice agronomy for both Yala and Maha seasons. It was revealed that the rainfall probability of > lOmm at 75% probability level and the Moisture Availability Index (MAI) of > 0.5 as good indicators t o select the cropping cycles of both seasons. The crop establishment program of Mapalana in the Yala and Maha seasons has t o be commenced around 16th April and 10th September respectively. It appeared that the availability of. rains during first weeks of April (1st t o 15th of April) has an impact on the Wccess of the Yala program. The consecutive dry weeks which could be experienced in Octo-ber may delay the crop establishment program of Maha season till 41st week in 5 ollt of 1 0 years.