Diffusion dynamics of competing information on networks

Abstract

Information diffusion on social networks has been described as a collective outcome of threshold behaviors in the framework of threshold models. However, since the existing models do not take into account individuals' optimization problems, it remains an open question what dynamics emerge in the diffusion process when individuals face multiple (and possibly incompatible) information sources. Here, we develop a microfounded general threshold model that enables us to analyze the collective dynamics of individual behavior in the propagation of multiple information sources. The analysis reveals that the virality of competing information sources is fundamentally indeterminate. When individuals maximize coordination with neighbors, the diffusion process is described as a saddle path, thereby leading to unpredictable symmetry breaking. When individuals' choices are irreversible, there is a continuum of stable equilibria where a certain degree of social polarization takes place by chance.