The causes of electoral support for VOX in Spain

Abstract

The analysis aims to understand the reasons why 15% of voters decided to support VOX on November 10, 2019. The main conditions to the emergence of said party are addressed. The evolution of their intention to vote and their relationship with the chain of significant events that occurred during 2018 and 2019, resulting in the concern for Catalan secessionism being the main trigger for take-off. Finally, a survey analysis is presented to explain the reasons and characteristics associated with VOX. It is found that the main explanatory variable is in self-placement on the left-right scale. Concerns about Catalan secessionism, age (due to the weight of the young vote) and authoritarianism remain in the background. On a third level of importance, the explanatory importance of immigration, being male, identifying oneself as a nationalist, having a Spanish feeling, pessimism about the political and economic situation, and the departure of Franco’s bones from Valley of the Fallen. From the comparison with other right-wing parties, it was found that the sensitivities are shared with other right-wing voters but more pronounced and radical. What mainly differentiates them is, in this order: age (youth), authoritarianism, concern for immigration, and higher score on the left-right scale.