Financial Dynamics of Energy, Coal, and Crude Oil Prices: Pathways to Sustainability

Abstract

This study examines the effect of coal and crude oil prices on Indonesia’s Energy Stock Price Index (ESPI) from February 2021 to November 2024. Utilizing econometric tools such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings indicate a significant link between coal, crude oil, and the energy sector, with coal exerting a strong and consistent influence on the ESPI, while crude oil’s impact is less pronounced in the short term. The Granger causality test reveals a one-way causal relationship from coal and crude oil to energy, emphasizing the importance of past price movements in forecasting energy price fluctuations. The study concludes that coal largely drives the ESPI, while crude oil and energy prices also contribute to its variations. These results highlight the considerable impact of coal and crude oil price shocks on energy prices, providing important insights for investors and policymakers. Future research could broaden the scope by including factors like technological advancements, environmental policies, and global economic conditions for a deeper understanding of energy market dynamics.