Interval prediction algorithm and optimal scenario making model for wind power producers bidding strategy

Abstract

Nowadays, renewable energies are important sources for supplying electric power demand and a key entity of future energy markets. Therefore, wind power producers (WPPs) in most of the power systems in the world have a key role. On the other hand, the wind speed uncertainty makes WPPs deferent power generators, which in turn causes adequate bidding strategies, that leads to market rules, and the functional abilities of the turbines to penetrate the market. In this paper, a new bidding strategy has been proposed based on optimal scenario making for WPPs in a competitive power market. As known, the WPP generation is uncertain, and different scenarios must be created for wind power production. Therefore, a prediction intervals method has been improved in making scenarios and increase the accuracy of the presence of WPPs in the balancing market. Besides, a new optimization algorithm has been proposed called the grasshopper optimization algorithm to simulate the optimal bidding problem of WPPs. A set of numerical examples, as well as a case-study based on real-world data, allows illustrating and discussing the properties of the proposed method.