The role of air–sea heat flux for marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

Abstract. Recent studies have significantly contributed to understanding physical mechanisms associated with the occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs). Building upon prior research, this study investigates the relative role of air–sea heat exchange and oceanic processes during the onset and decline phases of surface MHWs in the Mediterranean Sea based on a joint analysis of remote sensing data and reanalysis outputs over the period 1993–2022. Results show that air–sea heat flux is the major driver in 44 % of the onset and only 17 % of the declining MHW phases. Thus, these findings suggest that oceanic processes play a key role in driving sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during MHWs, particularly during declines. The role of surface flux becomes more important during warmer months and onset periods. Spatially, the heat flux contribution is greater in the Adriatic and Aegean sub-basins, where it becomes the major driver of most onset phases. Latent heat emerges as the most significant heat flux component in forming the SST evolution across all seasons. Onset and decline phases lasting less than 5 d experience a weaker contribution of heat flux compared to longer phases (lasting 5–10 or more than 10 d). Moreover, an inverse relationship between MHW severity and the contribution of heat flux is observed. At the subsurface, mixed layer shoaling is found over the entire duration of most MHWs, particularly for those of shorter duration. Therefore, the surface cooling right after the peak day is likely not associated with vertical mixing in such cases. These findings suggest that other oceanic processes, potentially horizontal advection, have a key role in modulating SST at the beginning of most MHW declines. In turn, further dissipation of heat is commonly driven by vertical mixing, as indicated by a significant mixed layer deepening after the MHW end day in most cases. This study emphasizes the need to consider subsurface information for future studies of MHWs and highlights the importance of accounting for limitations associated with the definitions employed for MHW phases.