The Pace of Decarbonization: Can the Power System Transition Meet Climate Policy Goals?

Abstract

To reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the United States will need to simultaneously expand and decarbonize its electricity supply. Aggressive clean energy policies supported by socially-aware modeling frameworks are necessary for the pace of the transition to meet this goal. Policymakers rely on computer modeling to inform decarbonization policies, even though most power sector models were not developed for this purpose. This paper investigates elements of modeling that are, and are not, constructive for climate policy design through a case study of Massachusetts. The analysis discusses typical uses for modeling results in the context of recent energy projects, in order to highlight strengths and weaknesses of power sector modeling as a tool to inform policy making. The discussion acknowledges what all modelers know - that modeling is useful for identifying technically feasible options and for comparing them based on quantifiable indicators. Frameworks such as general equilibrium modeling notwithstanding, this paper asserts that power sector models are incapable of identifying socially optimal solutions and estimating achievable pace of decarbonization, because they necessarily omit underlying social dynamics that affect policy implementation and decarbonization goals.