Hierarchical multi-stage cyber attack scenario modeling based on G and E model for cyber risk simulation analysis

Abstract

With the advancement in cyber-defense capabilities, cyber attacks have continued to evolve like living creatures to breach security. Assuming the possibility of various enemy attacks, it is necessary to select an appropriate course of action by proactively analyzing and predicting the consequences of a particular security event. Cyber attacks, especially in large-scale military network environments, have a fatal effect on security; therefore, various experiments and analyses must be conducted to establish the necessary preparations. Herein, we propose a hierarchical multi-stage cyber attack scenario modeling based on the goal and effect (GandE) model and analysis system, which enables expression of various goals of attack and damage effects without being limited to specific type. The proposed method is applicable to large-scale networks and can be utilized in various scenario-based cyber combat experiments.