An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model including the benefits and harms of radiotherapy

Abstract

PREDICT Breast (www.breast.predict.nhs.uk) is a prognostication tool for early invasive breast cancer. The current version was based on cases diagnosed in 1999–2003 and did not incorporate the benefits of radiotherapy or the harms associated with therapy. Since then, there has been a substantial improvement in the outcomes for breast cancer cases. The aim of this study was to update PREDICT Breast to ensure that the underlying model is appropriate for contemporary patients. Data from the England National Cancer Registration and Advisory Service for invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed 2000–17 were used for model development and validation. Model development was based on 35,474 cases diagnosed and registered by the Eastern Cancer Registry. A Cox model was used to estimate the prognostic effects of the year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, tumour size, tumour grade and number of positive nodes. Separate models were developed for ER-positive and ER-negative disease. Data on 32,408 cases from the West Midlands Cancer Registry and 100,551 cases from other cancer registries were used for validation. The new model was well-calibrated; predicted breast cancer deaths at 5-, 10- and 15-year were within 10 per cent of the observed validation data. Discrimination was also good: The AUC for 15-year breast cancer survival was 0.809 in the West Midlands data set and 0.846 in the data set for the other registries. The new PREDICT Breast model outperformed the current model and will be implemented in the online tool which should lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.