Gamma, Gaussian and logistic distribution models for airborne pollen grains and fungal spore season dynamics

Abstract

The characteristics of a pollen season, such as timing and magnitude, depend on a number of factors such as the biology of the plant and environmental conditions. The main aim of this study was to develop mathematical models that explain dynamics in atmospheric concentrations of pollen and fungal spores recorded in Rzeszów (SE Poland) in 2000–2002. Plant taxa with different characteristics in the timing, duration and curve of their pollen seasons, as well as several fungal taxa were selected for this analysis. Gaussian, gamma and logistic distribution models were examined, and their effectiveness in describing the occurrence of airborne pollen and fungal spores was compared. The Gaussian and differential logistic models were very good at describing pollen seasons with just one peak. These are typically for pollen types with just one dominant species in the flora and when the weather, in particular temperature, is stable during the pollination period. Based on s parameter of the Gaussian function, the dates of the main pollen season can be defined. In spite of the fact that seasonal curves are often characterised by positive skewness, the model based on the gamma distribution proved not to be very effective.