Nomogram for contrast-induced acute kidney injury in patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing coronary angiography in China: A cohort study

Abstract

Objectives To establish a nomogram for contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) risk assessment among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Southern China. Interventions None. Participants 643 consecutive patients with CKD (defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula <60 mL/min/1.73 mm 2) were enrolled. Outcome measures The end point was CI-AKI defined as serum creatinine elevation ≥0.5 mg/dL or 25% from baseline within the first 48-72 hours following contrast exposure.Predictors of CI-AKI were selected by multivariable logistic regression and stepwise approach. A nomogram based on these predictors was constructed and compared with the classic Mehran Score. For validation, a bootstrap method (1000 times) was performed. Results The nomogram including age, weight, heart rate, hypotension, PCI and β-blocker demonstrated a better predictive value than the classic Mehran Score (area under the curve: 0.78 vs 0.71, p=0.024), as well as a well-fitted calibration curve (χ 2 =12.146, p=0.145). Validation through the bootstrap method (1000 times) also indicated a good discriminative power (adjusted C-statistic: 0.76). Conclusions With fewer predictors and higher discriminative power, the present nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to identify patients with CKD at risk of CI-AKI, whereas further external validations are needed.