The effect of presidential election in the USA on stock return flow – a study of a political event

Abstract

The subject of this paper is to determine the statistical significance of abnormal return that appeared on the New York Stock Exchange after the presidential election in the USA in November 2012. The analysis is focused on securities of the financial institutions listed on the New York Stock Exchange, whereby 85 companies have been included. For the purposes of the analysis a standard methodology of event study has been used. In general, parametric tests show a statistically significant negative impact of the event on stock return, whereby with the nonparametric tests there is no consistent estimation. This paper provides an interpretation of the results.