Stabilizing COVID-19 Infections in US by Feedback Control based Test and Quarantine

Abstract

COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented amount of mental and economic turmoil with ever increasing fatality and no vaccination in sight. Here, feedback control theory based regulation of daily tests and quarantine is proposed to guarantee prescribed degree of exponential decay in number of infections. A dynamic model of COVID-19 is constructed and the parameters are further optimized using trust region method to match the reported cases trend in the US. Next, Lyapunov stability based controllers are designed that prescribe the amount of daily positive tests to be done in order to eradicate the infections in a much shorter time span without any further social restrictions. The results show a dramatic reduction in the number of cases and span of COVID-19 can be obtained doubling the number of daily quarantines.