Research on Safety Risk Evolution of Military Aviation System Based on ANP-SD

Abstract

With the development of equipment, the complexity of China's military aviation system continues to increase. The system risk is transformed from the initial independent risk factor to the cross-influence risk factor, which makes the system risk control difficult. In order to maintain the safety level of military aviation system, the factors affecting the safety level of the system are analysed from five aspects: Personnel, machine, environment, management and logistics. The analytic hierarchy process (ANP) is used to construct the model of the system risk factors and the system dynamics method is used to establish the risk evolution simulation model, and quantitatively analyse the sensitivity of risk factors to explore the basic rule of risk evolution.