Structured multi-agent-based model for bankruptcy contagion with cash flow

Abstract

Numerous multi-agent models have been proposed for various economic phenomena, especially for the bankruptcy contagion phenomenon, which is a seriously destructive occurrence that begins with the bankruptcy of a small group of individuals and spreads to a large scale like an infectious disease. However, almost none of these bankruptcy models can be applied in plural environments or consider the difficulty of implementation. Furthermore, cash flow between firms, which is a highly influential factor in bankruptcy contagion situations, is considered in few such models. To address these shortcomings, in this article, a new relationship, called the cash flow relationship, is first presented based on several relationships related to cash flows. A graphical structure called a cash flow graph is then presented to record cash flow relations between financial institutions and provide a discussion of the nature of the cash flow is then presented. Next, a multi-agent bankruptcy contagion model based on the cash flow graph is introduced. Finally, inferences are drawn from the proposed model and experiments conducted to explore the bankruptcy contagion phenomenon and confirm these inferences. This proposed model can be applied in multiple environments related to cash flows to successfully address the limitations of the existing multi-agent models for bankruptcy contagion.