Spatiotemporal association of rapid urbanization and water-body distribution on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A case study in the city of Xi’an, China

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonosis characterized by clinical fea-tures of high fever, hemorrhage, and renal damage. China has the largest number of HFRS cases worldwide, accounting for over 90% of the total reported cases. In this paper, we used surveyed HFRS data and satellite imagery to conduct geostatistical analysis for investigating the associations of rapid urbanization, water bodies, and other factors on the spatiotem-poral dynamics of HFRS from year 2005 to 2018 in Xi’an City, Northwest China. The results revealed an evident epidemic aggregation in the incidence of HFRS within Xi’an City with a phenomenal fluctuation in periodic time series. Rapid urbanization was found to greatly affect the HFRS incidence in two different time phases. HFRS caused by urbanization influ-ences farmers to a lesser extent than it does to non-farmers. The association of water bodies with the HFRS incidence rate was found to be higher within the radii of 696.15 m and 1575.39 m, which represented significant thresholds. The results also showed that geo-matics approaches can be used for spatiotemporally investigating the HFRS dynamic characteristics and supporting effective allocations of resources to formulate strategies for preventing epidemics.