Forecast of russian coal exports depending on the dynamics of world prices

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the state of the world coal trade, it is concluded that currently the main trade flows are formed in the Asia-Pacific region and they determine the world prices for coal. Therefore, global coal prices will depend on how this market behaves, and thus the competitiveness of Russian coal on the world market. The competitive advantages of Russian coal as well as factors that reduce its competitiveness in the world market are identified. the main ones are tariffs for railway transportation, the distance of coal mining facilities from the final consumers of coal, as well as the insufficient capacity of railway and port infrastructures. The threshold for the final cost of coal has been determined, taking into account the transport component and port charges, which provide an acceptable level of profitability for Russian coal companies. The rates of growth (decrease) of coal export supplies from Russia up to 2024 and 2030 under different scenarios of coal price behavior are determined.