Prediction of Settlement Due to Shield TBM Tunneling Based on Three-Dimensional Numerical Analysis

Abstract

The Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) method has gained attention as an eco-friendly tunneling technique, effectively reducing noise, vibration, and carbon emissions compared to conventional blasting methods. However, ground settlement and volume loss are inevitable during TBM excavation due to the deformation of the surrounding ground, which may even lead to ground collapse in severe cases. In this study, a Shield TBM model, validated using field data, was employed to perform numerical analyses on parameters such as tunnel diameter, ground elastic modulus, face pressure, and backfill pressure. Based on the simulation results, the influence of each parameter on settlement was evaluated, and a predictive model for estimating maximum settlement was developed. The proposed model was statistically validated using p-value assessment, variance inflation factor (VIF), coefficient of determination (R2), and residual analysis. Furthermore, the prediction model showed high agreement with the field data, yielding a prediction error of 8.25%. This study emphasizes the applicability of verified numerical modeling for accurately predicting ground settlement in Shield TBM tunneling and provides a reliable approach for settlement prediction under varying construction conditions.