AN ADVANCED STATISTICAL EXTREME VALUE MODEL FOR EVALUATING STORM SURGE HEIGHTS CONSIDERING SYSTEMATIC RECORDS AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO

Abstract

In this paper, a non-stationary extreme value analysis approach is introduced in order to determine coastal design water levels for future time horizons. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and a L-Moment parameter estimation as well as a Maximum-Likelihood-estimation. An additional approach considers sea level rise scenarios in the non-stationary extreme value analysis. All the methods are applied to the annual maximum water levels from 1849-2007 at the German North Sea gauge at Cuxhaven. The results show, that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining coastal design water levels.