Optimising filtering of two-line element sets to increase re-entry prediction accuracy for GTO objects

Abstract

Predicting re-entry epoch of space objects enables managing the risk to ground population. Predictions are particularly difficult for objects in highly-elliptical orbits, and important for objects with components that can survive re-entry, e.g. rocket bodies (R/Bs). This paper presents a methodology to filter two-line element sets (TLEs) to facilitate accurate re-entry prediction of such objects. Difficulties in using TLEs for precise analyses are highlighted and a set of filters that identifies erroneous element sets is developed. The filter settings are optimised using an artificially generated TLE time series. Optimisation results are verified on real TLEs by analysing the automatically found outliers for exemplar R/Bs. Based on a study of 96 historical re-entries, it is shown that TLE filtering is necessary on all orbital elements that are being used in a given analysis in order to avoid considerably inaccurate results.