Determining the Export Competitiveness of Indonesian Lobsters to Major Destination Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the competitiveness of Indonesian lobster exports in five key destination markets—China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia—and explores the influence of key export determinants, namely export prices, the GDP per capita of destination countries, and real exchange rates. The analysis employs the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) methods to evaluate competitiveness, while the determinants of export performance are examined using quarterly panel data from 2010 to 2022, analysed through the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results reveal that Indonesian lobsters exhibit a comparative advantage in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, but not in China. Although Indonesia's export market share has expanded in China and Taiwan, it has declined in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, despite an overall increase in export volume. Long-term analysis indicates that rising export prices do not significantly deter the volume of lobster exports to major markets. Conversely, higher GDP per capita in importing countries is associated with reduced export volumes, particularly in China, where the comparative advantage is weak. This suggests that lobsters are not consistently perceived as luxury goods, as rising incomes may lead consumers to shift toward other food options due to diminishing marginal utility. In the short run, real exchange rates exert a significant impact on export performance. An appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah tends to reduce export volumes, whereas depreciation stimulates them. To bolster its global competitiveness, Indonesia is advised to increase export volumes, foster international trade partnerships, and enhance the quality of its lobster products. These strategies are essential for expanding market presence in both established and emerging export destinations.