Constructing a National Composite Index to measure food security in Libya: a multidimensional analysis (1990–2022)

Abstract

This study develops a National Composite Food Security Index (NCFSI) for Libya covering 1990–2022, integrating four dimensions: food availability, food affordability, food quality & safety, and food system resilience. Twelve locally relevant indicators were normalized using Min–Max scaling and aggregated via arithmetic mean. Interrupted Time Series regression was applied to assess the impact of the 2011 civil conflict, revealing a significant structural break: food security peaked in 2000–2010 but declined sharply thereafter, reaching its lowest levels in 2017–2022. Quality and safety showed the steepest deterioration, reflecting regulatory collapse and disrupted input supply chains. Correlation analysis indicated strong links between food availability and food resilience ( r = 0.98), while food affordability was negatively correlated with food quality, suggesting potential trade-offs. Findings underscore Libya’s vulnerability to shocks and the urgent need for governance reform, revitalized irrigation systems, and climate-resilient strategies. The NCFSI offers a robust, replicable tool for monitoring progress toward SDG 2.