Benin agriculture in front of climate change: challenges and implications: Kandi case

Abstract

Kandi commune has been for several years one of Benin regions where there is climate change damage on agricultural production. The situation has become increasingly important over the years, with serious threats to the food security of the population. The rains are rarified, and dramatically retarded with a tendency unfavorable to the growth of the crops until maturation. A better understanding of the climatic basis for the decline in crop yields of maize, cassava and sorghum crops in Kandi commune, and to predict future trends on the horizon is the subject of this study. The interest of such an approach is linked to the preventive diagnostic approach to help the actors of the agricultural sector in effective decision-making. Weather data for the historical phase covers the period 1972 to 2014 and are official and complete daily data collected at the Agency for the Safety of Air Navigation in Africa and Madagascar of Cotonou. As for the predicted weather data, they have been regenerated thanks to the CARAIB dynamic model developed at the University of Liège. The Aqua Crop model is used in the work to predict agricultural yields. After calibration of the model and validation of the theoretical data of regenerated yields for the historical phase (1975-2014) in comparison with the observed data (collected at the National Directorate of Agricultural Statistics), future forecasts are developed using data Weather forecast. The whole process was based on an appropriate statistical approach supported by previous work on the subject. Diagnosis and monitoring of the rainy season length trend was an important step in guiding planting and harvest dates. The significant decline in this indicator is one of the reasons for the early senescence of crops in Kandi in relation to climate change. Consideration should be given to the contraction of agricultural seasons to define seeding dates and to promote efficient management of rain fed resources for agriculture. Agro-climatic constraints impose a preventive policy on the choice of short-cycle crop varieties and on curative mitigation measures, including climate insurance. It is recommended to sensitize the various factors involved in the agricultural sector and to protect agricultural land from any degradation in order to limit the implications of other factors to the decline in agricultural yields. The State must adopt an agricultural policy incentive to minimize the change of activities of the actors and the random rotation of crops induced by climate change.