Segmentation and estimation of change-point models: False positive control and confidence regions

Abstract

To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic, and give approximations for the probability of a false positive error when there are no change-points. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood ratio statistic for the changepoints and joint confidence regions for the change-points and the parameter values. Applications to segment array CGH data are discussed.