Metabolic health status in Chinese children and adolescents: Evidence from national adult and students’ surveys

Abstract

Globally rising metabolic syndrome (MS) prevalence underscores the need to understand component changes, especially in China's aging population. This study projects metabolic burden trends from 2000-2030 in Chinese children and adolescents using overweight/obesity (OWOB) and hypertension (HTN) as markers, addressing a critical knowledge gap. Analyzing data from three adult surveys (n=38,725) and five national student surveys (n=1,106,416), we found a 100% increase in adult MS cases, driven primarily by rising high blood pressure, blood glucose, and waist circumference. Projections for 2030 indicate a 34.4% decline in the youth population but a 180.6% surge in OWOB and a 131.5% increase in HTN cases. A significant negative correlation was found between the Population Development Index (PDI) and metabolic risk. Decomposition analysis confirmed rising prevalence as the main driver of increasing case numbers, partially offset by population decline. We conclude that China's deteriorating adult metabolic health, reflected in worsening pediatric trends, portends a rising non-communicable disease burden, demanding urgent public health resource allocation. (Afr J Reprod Health 2025; 29 [12s]: 165-182).