Where do immigrants move in Germany? The role of international migration in regional disparities in population development

Abstract

We examine the impact of foreign migration on regional disparities in population development in Germany by analysing spatial patterns and determinants at the county level for the period of 2007–2017. Counterfactual analyses show that international migration has been the major component of population growth across German regions. However, immigration has mainly been directed towards large cities and highly urbanised areas and has therefore reinforced the existing spatial disparities in population development. Spatial econometric models nonetheless reveal that international migrants are not attracted by agglomeration per se. The location choices of international migrants were mainly driven by existing regional ethnic networks and factors that are related to different personal life stages, such as education or changes in family status. Furthermore, the estimated regional determinants vary strongly across migrant groups from different geographical backgrounds as well as between the external and internal migration of foreigners.