Facing the unknown with hope or fear: On the affective reactions to outcome uncertainty

Abstract

In both lay discourse and scientific analyses, uncertainty has been often portrayed as threatening, and “fear of the unknown” has been typically proclaimed as people’s natural reaction to unpredictability. Diverse research programs in psychology emphasised the human tendency to avoid uncertainty, seek cognitive closure, crave security, and compensate for self-uncertainty by self-affirmation. Yet there is also evidence that people may feel comfortable with uncertainty and actually approach uncertain situations. To integrate these opposite tendencies, we offer a model of affective reactions to uncertainty (the ARTU model) that delineates the conditions under which they would be positive or negative. In our framework, uncertainty pertains to the unspecified likelihood of outcomes in a given situation, and outcome uncertainty pertains to their unspecified valence. We propose that affective response to a current situation is jointly determined by: (1) the situation’s perceived degree of outcome uncertainty, (2) People’s recently experienced outcomes, and (3) their long-term history of outcomes. Our formal model describes the relations among these factors and offers several predictions supported by prior and novel empirical findings. And it carries implications for interventions designed to alter individuals’ attitudinal and behavioural reactions towards uncertainty, and to augment their ability to embrace rather than escape uncertainty.