Development and validation of a preoperative MRI-based radiomics nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with clival chordomas

Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish and validate a MRI-based radiomics nomogram to predict progression-free survival (PFS) of clival chordoma. Methods: A total of 174 patients were enrolled in the study (train cohort: 121 cases, test cohort: 53 cases). Radiomic features were extracted from multiparametric MRIs. Intraclass correlation coefficient analysis and a Lasso and Elastic-Net regularized generalized linear model were used for feature selection. Then, a nomogram was established via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis in the train cohort. The performance of this nomogram was assessed by area under curve (AUC) and calibration curve. Results: A total of 3318 radiomic features were extracted from each patient, of which 2563 radiomic features were stable features. After feature selection, seven radiomic features were selected. Cox regression analysis revealed that 2 clinical factors (degree of resection, and presence or absence of primary chordoma) and 4 radiomic features were independent prognostic factors. The AUC of the established nomogram was 0.747, 0.807, and 0.904 for PFS prediction at 1, 3, and 5 years in the train cohort, respectively, compared with 0.582, 0.852, and 0.914 in the test cohort. Calibration and risk score stratified survival curves were satisfactory in the train and test cohort. Conclusions: The presented nomogram demonstrated a favorable predictive accuracy of PFS, which provided a novel tool to predict prognosis and risk stratification. Our results suggest that radiomic analysis can effectively help neurosurgeons perform individualized evaluations of patients with clival chordomas.