The future of defense industrialization 5.0 in Indonesia: The potential role of the enforced autonomy model

Abstract

This study examines how Indonesia can advance its Defense Industrialization 5.0 goals by adopting an Enforced Autonomy Model-an approach that treats industrial development not as a market-driven evolution but as a statemandated mission. Through qualitative policy analysis and diagnostic tools like the Ishikawa diagram and Arms Production Ladder, the paper identifies persistent challenges that hinder progress, including fragmented governance, outdated technology, limited R&D investment, and weak integration of local suppliers. These challenges, while well-known, are often addressed through voluntary policies that lack binding force. The Enforced Autonomy Model proposed in this study introduces a shift in perspective: it argues that without enforcement mechanisms-such as presidential-level authority, mandatory local content rules, and structured talent pipelines-Indonesia will remain dependent on foreign suppliers and struggle to meet long-term strategic goals. Drawing lessons from countries like South Korea, Turkey, and Singapore, the paper demonstrates that meaningful transformation in the defense sector requires strong political leadership, clear targets, and institutional accountability. To operationalize this approach, the study outlines six strategic roadmaps covering human capital, production line modernization, supply chain development, product innovation, export promotion, and governance reform. Each roadmap includes enforceable targets tied to legal or regulatory instruments, ensuring alignment across ministries, state-owned enterprises, and research institutions. The findings suggest that by embedding enforcement into national policy, Indonesia can not only achieve the targets set in its 2045 development agenda but also emerge as a key defense supplier for the Global South. In doing so, the country would shift from being a passive participant in global defense markets to a proactive industrial actor capable of innovation, autonomy, and strategic relevance.