Subgroup State Prediction under Different Noise Levels Using MODWT and XGBoost

Abstract

In medical states prediction, the observations of different individuals are generally assumed to follow an identical distribution, whereas precision medicine has a rigorous requirement for accurate subgroup analysis. In this research, an aggregated method is proposed by means of combining the results generated from different subgroup models and is compared with the original method for different denoising levels as well as the prediction gaps. The results using real data demonstrate the effectiveness of the aggregated method exhibiting superior performance such as 0.95 in AUC, 0.87 in F1, and 0.82 in sensitivity, particularly for the denoising level that is set to be 2. With respect to the variable importance, it is shown that some variables such as heart rate and lactate arterial become more important when the denoising level increases.