Revisiting the Link Between Thunderstorms and Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Abstract

As the Earth's temperatures continue to rise due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a large portion of the warming is due to positive feedbacks from increasing atmospheric water vapor or specific humidity (SH). Some of this water vapor in the boundary layer is transported via deep convection to the upper troposphere (as droplets and ice crystals), moistening the upper troposphere. These small changes in SH in the upper troposphere have a significant impact on the Earth's radiation balance. We compared global daily lightning from the WWLLN data set, and SH data from the ERA5 reanalysis product for 2019, at a spatial resolution of 5°. Our findings show high spatial and temporal correlations between the lightning activity and the SH concentrations in the upper troposphere. The best correlations (r2 = 0.72, p << 0.001) are between lightning activity and UTWV at the 200 mb level (∼12 km altitude), although the correlations with SH at 300 and 400 mb were only slightly lower. Lightning and SH migrate with the seasons north and south of the equator with both parameters showing maxima in the summer hemisphere around 10° latitude. Furthermore, the correlation increases slightly (r2 = 0.73) if a 1-day lag is considered between the lightning activity and the UTWV. We find that the daily global SH in the upper troposphere can be best estimated using daily global lightning frequency and a power law having an exponent of 0.33.