Using geographic information systems to investigate uncertainty in forest planning outcomes

Abstract

Forests are complex systems with forest ecosystem, resource, stakeholder and policy subsystems. Knowledge about forest systems is always incomplete, and uncertainty pervades decision-making. Forest planning should account for complexity and address uncertainty, using feedback on past outcomes to inform future planning. Complexity in the forest system and uncertainty in planning have a spatial dimension, which can be represented and analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS). These principles apply to both strategic and operational planning. In this paper we present a GIS-based method for spatially analyzing forest planning outcomes and uncertainty (SAFEPLAN). Results obtained for a southeastern BC case study show how this method can be used to identify specific sources of uncertainty and remedies for improving the effectiveness of operational forest planning. Anticipating the effects of recurring events on plan outcomes will increase effectiveness of operational planning and will improve the ability of forest managers to achieve the desired results.